Original title: Foreseeing 2021: “Panorama Map of China’s PVC Industry in 2021″ (with market status, competitive landscape and development trends, etc.) Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute
Major listed companies in the industry: Xinjiang Tianye (12.060, 0.50, 4.33%) (600075); Zhongtai Chemical (17.240, 0.13, 0.76%) (002092); Beiyuan Group (10.380, 0.25, 2.47%) (601568); Junzheng Group (6.390, 0.15, 2.40%) (601216); Sanyou Chemical (15.450, -0.13, -0.83%) (600409).
The core data of this article: industry capacity; industry output; industry demand
Polyvinyl chloride, abbreviated as PVC (Polyvinyl chloride) in English, is a polymer formed by the polymerization of vinyl chloride monomer in peroxides, azo compounds and other initiators; or under the action of light and heat according to the free radical polymerization reaction mechanism. At present, the general classification methods of my country’s PVC industry include classification according to application scope, classification according to polymerization method and classification according to plasticizer content. The specific categories are as follows:
2. Analysis of the industrial chain: The industrial chain is long and involves many industries
According to different manufacturing methods, the raw materials in the upstream of the PVC industry chain are also different. The upstream raw materials of the ethylene method are mainly crude oil, and the raw materials of the calcium carbide method are mainly raw salt and coal; the middle reaches of the PVC industry chain are PVC preparation enterprises; the main downstream application fields are Profiles, pipes, films, paper products, cable materials and artificial leather, etc.
From the perspective of the PVC industry map, the upstream petrochemical production companies of PVC include PetroChina and Sinopec; representative coal mining companies include Yanzhou Coal (32.440, -0.86, -2.58%) and Shaanxi Coal (15.730, 0.03, 0.19%) ), Liaoning Energy (4.880, 0.44, 9.91%) and Pingding Coal (11.210, -0.43, -3.69%); PVC midstream production companies include Xinjiang Tianye, Zhongtai Chemical, Junzheng Group, Beiyuan Group, etc.; downstream Demand companies include pipe and fitting manufacturing industries such as Guofeng Plastic (7.390, 0.23, 3.21%), Tianan New Materials (8.830, 0.42, 4.99%) and Beijing New Group.
Industry development process: The industry is in the stage of capacity upgrading
The development of my country’s PVC industry can be divided into four stages. From 1953 to 1957, PVC was in the experimental research stage, and the preparation technology was under development; from 1958 to 1980, my country’s PVC preparation technology gradually matured and the industry began to develop; from 1980 to 2000, my country’s PVC preparation technology could reach mass production. Accelerate development; since 2000, my country’s PVC is in the stage of capacity upgrading, with a capacity of 10 million tons.
Industry policy background: policies promote the green development of the industry
In recent years, as the awareness of environmental protection has taken root in the hearts of the people, as a highly polluting industry, the government has continuously introduced policies to regulate its development. The specific policies introduced include restricting additives and catalysts in the PVC production process, standardizing the production process, and conducting special inspections on high-polluting enterprises to promote the green and low-carbon development of the industry.
Industry development status:
——Development characteristics of the PVC industry: strong industry integration effect
At present, the development of my country’s PVC industry is characterized by high regional concentration of production capacity, low concentration of enterprises, calcium carbide method as the main process, and strong industrial integration effects.
——PVC industry output: PVC output continues to rise
In terms of output, China’s polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin output scale has maintained a steady upward trend from 2015 to 2020. According to data from China Chlor-Alkali Network, China’s PVC production in 2020 will be 22.81 million tons, an increase of 13.4% year-on-year
——The apparent consumption of PVC industry: the apparent consumption is above 20 million tons
From 2016 to 2020, China’s apparent PVC consumption has shown an overall growth trend. In 2020, China’s apparent PVC consumption will be 20.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%.
——Analysis of PVC price level: the price level continues to rise
From 2012 to 2020, China’s PVC prices are on the rise after falling. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the mainstream domestic PVC average price at the beginning of 2020 is 6,900 yuan/ton, and the domestic mainstream average price of PVC at the end of the year is 7,320 yuan/ton. Based on this calculation, in 2020, the average annual unit price of PVC in China will be 7110 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%.
(Note: The annual average price is calculated based on the average daily price)
(Note: The annual average price is calculated based on the average daily price)
——Analysis of the market size of the PVC industry: the industry growth rate will exceed 20% in 2020
According to China’s PVC market scale = PVC consumption * unit price (average annual price), the scale of China’s PVC market will continue to grow from 2015 to 2020. In 2020, the average annual unit price of PVC in China is 7110 yuan/ton. Based on this, the estimated market size is 164.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%.
Industry competitive landscape
1. Regional competition pattern: production capacity is dominated by Northwest China
According to the data released by the China Chlor-Alkali Association, in 2020, Northwest my country will have the highest PVC production capacity, reaching 13.76 million tons; North China has a production capacity of 6.7 million tons; and East China has a production capacity of 2.53 million tons. From the perspective of the distribution of PVC production companies, my country’s Xinjiang Province is a gathering place for leading PVC companies. Representative companies include Xinjiang Tianye, Zhongtai Chemical, etc.; Shandong Province is also a province with more PVC companies in my country, and the representative company is Xinfa Group. , Qingdao Bay, Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical, Sinopec Qilu Branch, Dezhou Shihua, etc. my country’s PVC companies are mostly located in North China and Northwest China, close to the raw material mining area, which is conducive to cost saving.
2. Enterprise competition pattern: the production capacity of leading enterprises is more than 1 million tons
According to the production capacity, the competition pattern of my country’s PVC companies is divided. The first tier is the companies with a production capacity of more than 1 million tons. Representative companies include the national production capacity leaders such as Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye and Beiyuan Chemical; the second tier is the production capacity of 50 -1 million tons of companies, representative companies are Tianjin Dagu, Sanyou Chemical, Junzheng Energy and other regional leading companies; the third echelon is companies with a production capacity of less than 500,000 tons, representative companies include Elion Chemical and Anhui Asustek, etc. Strange small and medium-sized PVC production enterprises.
Industry development prospects and trend forecast
1. Modified PVC has become a development trend: Modified PVC may become mainstream products in the future
Because PVC resin has poor molding processability, such as high melt viscosity. Poor fluidity, low thermal stability, easy to cause decomposition, etc. PVC products have poor aging resistance, easy to become brittle, hard, cracked, poor toughness, poor cold resistance, etc., so generally modified PVC is required. To make up for the above shortcomings. Modified PVC products are widely used and may become mainstream products for future development. Its types and uses are as follows:
2. Investment expansion to meet market demand: investment expansion has become an industry development trend
According to statistics from Baichuan Yingfu, my country is expected to add 2.3 million tons of PVC production capacity in 2021. Among them, Tianjin Dagu has 80 tons of replacement capacity, and Shandong Xinfa and Julong Chemical both plan to add 400,000 tons of new capacity. As the application range of PVC becomes wider, it is expected that PVC manufacturers will invest in expansion to meet market demand.
The above data comes from the “China’s PVC Industry Production and Sales Demand and Investment Forecast Analysis Report” by the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute. At the same time, the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute also provides industrial big data, industrial research, industrial chain consulting, industrial maps, industrial planning, park planning, and industrial investment promotion. Solutions such as investment attraction, IPO fundraising feasibility study, and prospectus writing.
Post time: Sep-09-2021