I-China ingumthengi omkhulu kanye nomkhiqizi wemikhiqizo yamakhemikhali.Kule mboni, izwe lami liye ladlula ngokuqhubekayo imikhawulo yezobuchwepheshe futhi lazuza imiphumela eminingi.Njengamanje, imboni yamakhemikhali yaphinde yathola izindaba ezinhle.
Ngokombiko wakamuva wabezindaba wangoMsombuluko (Julayi 5), izibalo zibonisa ukuthi amandla okukhiqiza amagilavu e-PVC aseShayina enza u-90% wengqikithi yomhlaba, kanti u-90% wamagilavu e-PVC wezwe lami awokuthekelisa.Ngo-2020, ukukhiqizwa kwe-PVC yezwe lami kuzofinyelela kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-20.74, kubekwe kuqala emhlabeni.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kukhona "abokuqala" abaningi ezweni lakithi.Ngo-2020, izwe lami lakhiqiza amathani angu-894,000 e-spandex, elikleliswe kuqala emhlabeni.Ukukhiqizwa kwenqwaba yamakhemikhali ayinqwaba njengeziqandisi zesizukulwane sesithathu, ama-synthetic resin, imicu yengilazi, i-methanol, umlotha wesoda, namathayi nakho kukleliswe kuqala emhlabeni.
Ukwanda komkhiqizo wale mikhiqizo yamakhemikhali kulethe izinzuzo ezinkulu embonini yamakhemikhali yezwe lami.Izibalo zikhombisa ukuthi ezinyangeni ezinhlanu zokuqala zalo nyaka, imali engenile embonini yamakhemikhali inyuke yafinyelela ku-5.50 trillion yuan, imali engenayo inyuke cishe ngo-32.8%, kanti inzuzo ibe ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-507.69, okukhuphuke izikhathi ezi-5.6.Ukwengeza, kusukela ngomhlaka-1 Julayi, cishe u-80% wezinkampani zamakhemikhali ze-A-share zilindele ukuthi ukusebenza kwazo kwekusasa kuzokhula.
Ukuzuza kwemiphumela emihle kangaka kuhlomule ekwenzeni ngcono okuqhubekayo kobuchwepheshe bemboni yamakhemikhali yezwe lami.Izwe lami liphule umgoqo wezobuchwepheshe we-48K omkhulu we-tow carbon fiber, inkosi yezinto ezintsha.Ukuminyana kwalokhu okubizwa ngokuthi “igolide elimnyama” kungaphansi kwengxenye eyodwa kwezine yensimbi, futhi ububanzi bayo buyingxenye eyodwa kwezinhlanu kuphela zezinwele.Eyodwa, kodwa amandla ayo angafinyelela izikhathi eziyisi-7 kuye kweziyi-9 kunawensimbi.Ingasetshenziswa kabanzi ekwenzeni izinti zokudoba, amarakhethi e-badminton, amagobolondo endiza kanye nezinsimbi zamandla omoya.
Kumele wazi ukuthi izwe lami belithembele ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe kulobu buchwepheshe.Ngemva kweminyaka yocwaningo, ekugcineni yakwazi ukuqeda ukuvinjelwa kwezobuchwepheshe.Kuyafaneleka ukubalula ukuthi izinkampani zaseChina nazo zihlala zifuna impumelelo kulo mkhakha.Iphrojekthi ye-Shanghai Petrochemical enesamba sokutshalwa kwezimali okungama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.5-”12,000 amathani/ngonyaka 48K omkhulu we-carbon fiber” iqale ukwakhiwa ngoJanuwari 4, 2021.
Abangaphakathi bathi ukusebenza kwamanje kwemboni yamakhemikhali yasekhaya kudlule obekulindelwe.Ngokwale nqubekelaphambili yentuthuko, ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni yamakhemikhali yezwe lami kuzokwazi ukufinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu, kube nobuchwepheshe obuningi bemboni, futhi kuzuze amasheya amaningi emakethe yamakhemikhali yomhlaba wonke.
Ukungqubuzana phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo akugqamile, ukulungiswa kwentengo ye-PVC yesikhathi esizayo kuhlangabezana nezingqinamba
Ikusasa le-PVC liye laguquguquka ngezinga eliphezulu, kodwa ububanzi bokusebenza behle bashona phansi.Ukunyuka kwekusasa kukhuphule ukuzethemba kwabahlanganyeli bemakethe.Intengo evamile yemakethe yendawo ye-PVC yenyuka, futhi imithombo yezimpahla enenani eliphansi emakethe bekusenzima ukuyithola.Nakuba ikusasa selikhulile futhi isisekelo se-PVC sesiluleme, imakethe yendawo isesezingeni eliphezulu.Ezindaweni eziyinhloko zokukhiqiza ezisenyakatho-ntshonalanga, ingcindezi ye-inventory yamabhizinisi ayinkulu, amanye asenama-oda angaphambi kokuthengiswa, futhi izingcaphuno zangaphambili zefekthri ziphakanyiswe ngobubanzi obuncane, futhi zingalungiswa ngokuguquguquka ngokuvumelana nezimo zazo.Izikhungo eziningi zokukhiqiza zisebenza kahle, kanti izinga lokuqala lomkhakha we-PVC ligcinwa lilinganiselwa ku-84%.Kunezinhlelo ezimbalwa zokulungisa amabhizinisi esikhathini esizayo, futhi ukuhlinzekwa okuqinile kwe-PVC kuzokwehliswa.Izintengo zangaphambili zasembonini ze-calcium carbide ngayinye zikhuphukile, futhi amanani okuthenga ngokuvamile azinzile.Ngenxa yomthelela omubi kakhulu wesilinganiso samandla e-Inner Mongolia, ikakhulukazi indawo yase-Wumeng, ukuhlinzekwa kwe-calcium carbide kunzima ukubuyisela esikhathini esifushane.Kodwa-ke, uma kucatshangelwa ukwamukelwa phansi komfula, ukulungiswa kwentengo ye-calcium carbide kunengqondo, futhi izindleko ze-PVC ziphezulu.Inzuzo yentengo yephuzu lemakethe yanyamalala, futhi izipesheli zabadayisi zaziqinile, ezinye zazo zikhushulwe cishe ngama-yuan angama-30/ton.Imakethe engezansi ayinamdlandla kakhulu ngokujaha ukukhuphuka, ngokuntula imibuzo esebenzayo, kanye nokugcwalisa izimpahla ngamanani athengiswayo.Inani langempela lokuhweba selithuthukile uma liqhathaniswa nesikhathi esidlule.Izibalo zakamuva zibonisa ukuthi ivolumu yokuthekelisa ye-PVC ngoMeyi yehle yaba amathani angama-216,200, kodwa iwindi le-arbitrage lokuthekelisa ngoJuni lavalwa isikhathi esiningi, futhi umthamo wokuthekelisa we-PVC kulindeleke ukuthi wehle ngezinga eliphezulu.Inani labafikayo emakethe lincane uma kuqhathaniswa, kanti isamba senhlalo ye-PVC eMpumalanga China naseNingizimu China sehle safinyelela kumathani ayi-145,000.Kunzima ukuqongelela ngokushesha esikhathini esifushane, futhi i-inventory ephansi inikeza ukusekelwa okuqinile.Ngokuhlinzekwa okukhulayo kanye nesidingo esibuthakathaka, okuyisisekelo se-PVC kulindeleke ukuthi sibe buthaka.Okwamanje, ukuphikisana kwemakethe akukagqami.Ngaphansi kwesimo se-premium yendawo ephezulu, ukulungiswa kwenkontileka okuyinhloko kuwuvilapha kancane, okubonisa ithrendi yokuguquguquka okuphezulu.Okungenhla kugxile okwesikhashana ekuphikiseni eduze kwe-8800, futhi kunconywa ukugcina ukucabanga kwe-bearish ekusebenzeni.
1. Amanani esikhathi esizayo ayashintshashintsha
Ikusasa le-PVC lifike ku-9435 maphakathi no-Meyi, libeka izinga eliphezulu elisha lonyaka futhi liphinde lafinyelela phezulu okusha eminyakeni eyishumi edlule.Njengoba amanani eqhubeka nokukhuphuka, ukucindezela okuphezulu ku-PVC kuye kwanda, umfutho wokukhuphuka okuqhubekayo ubuthakathaka, futhi idiski ilungiswa ngokunengqondo.Isikhungo samandla adonsela phansi se-PVC saxegiswa kancane, sawela ngaphansi kophawu lwe-9000, futhi ngokuyisisekelo siguquguquka kububanzi obungu-8500-9000, sihlola ngokuphindaphindiwe ukwesekwa kwamamaki angu-8500.Ekupheleni kukaJuni, inkontileka enkulu yawa izinsuku eziyisithupha ezilandelanayo zokuhweba futhi yaphuka ngempumelelo, yafinyelela ubuncane be-8295. Imakethe yamabala ine-premium ejulile.Endabeni yesisekelo esiphezulu, ngemva kwesikhathi esifushane sokuhlanganiswa ebangeni le-8300-8500, i-PVC iphinde yadonsa, yaphula isilinganiso sokunyakaza sezinsuku ezingu-20, futhi yalulama eduze nophawu lwe-8700.
2. ibala linamandla
Ukwehla kwekusasa kuthinta ingqondo yabahlanganyeli bemakethe.Izintengo zemakethe yezindawo ze-PVC zasekhaya zilandele ngokuxekethile, kodwa ayikakabi bikho imithombo eminingi yezimpahla ezinenani eliphansi.Ayikho imithombo eminingi esakazwayo yezimpahla emakethe, esekela ukusebenza kwezinga eliphezulu kwezintengo zezindawo ze-PVC.Ingcindezi ehlangothini lokuhlinzeka ngomfula okhuphukayo ayinamandla okwamanje, izingcaphuno zezinkampani ezisendaweni yokukhiqiza esenyakatho-ntshonalanga azikashintshi kakhulu, futhi isidingo semakethe esezansi nomfula sisanda kuba buthakathaka, kodwa i-inventory yezenhlalakahle isezingeni eliphansi, futhi ukungqubuzana phakathi kokunikezwa nokufunwa akukukhulu.Ikhotheshini yohlobo 5 lwezinto ze-calcium carbide: Ukudluliselwa kwemali okujwayelekile kwe-East China kuzikhiphela ngokwakho 9000-9100 yuan/ton, ukuhwebelana kwemali okujwayelekile kwe-South China kuzikhiphela ngokwakho 9070-9150 yuan/ton, ukheshi we-Hebei uya ku-8910-8980 yuan/ton , I-Shandong idlulisela imali ku-8900-8980 yuan/ Ton.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-10-2021