Exports in the fourth quarter are expected to weaken year-on-year
The strength of exports this year reflects the weakness of domestic demand. PVC export arbitrage window continued to open in the first quarter, the export volume was second only to the same period last year, significantly higher than in previous years. Due to the high price of overseas crude oil, export orders continued to improve from March to May, overseas off-season demand decreased from June to July, and then with the decline of overseas costs, export orders decreased and export volume to be delivered decreased significantly. The export volume of PVC in October was 96,600 tons, and the cumulative export volume of PVC from January to October was 1,755,600 tons, increasing by 21.3% year-on-year. In the third quarter, the demand for PVC powder in India and Southeast Asia decreased significantly compared with the first and second quarters, and with the falling price of overseas raw materials, the price of outer plate PVC continued to weaken, and the domestic export orders in October and November were not good, resulting in the export volume of the whole fourth quarter will decline. On the one hand, India hopes to stock up before the end of the anti-dumping policy. On the other hand, there is a domestic expectation of rising prices, so it increases the purchase. However, it needs to see the sustainability of export orders, and export orders in December will affect the export volume around January next year.
Iv. Summary
Short-term PVC weak realistic fundamentals and macro expectations are still in the game, the supply side: calcium carbide starts unstable, downstream PVC starts slightly increased, enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement improved, calcium carbide market supply and demand basically flat. At present, the inventory of PVC manufacturers is on the high side, coupled with the off-season at the end of the year, and there is still some pressure on the supply end. Cost end: calcium carbide market price to maintain stability, due to some calcium carbide enterprise profit again hit the cost line, the majority of calcium carbide market stable price operation at present. Recent external mining calcium carbide PVC enterprises in the spot up and calcium carbide purchase price decline under the loss reduction. Although caustic soda has profit but liquid chlorine price decline, chlor-alkali integration enterprise profit reduction. Demand end: the downstream product enterprise terminal order situation is not good, coupled with the PVC raw material price acceptance degree is not high, low enthusiasm for stocking, getting closer to the holiday, short-term downstream procurement enthusiasm is difficult to improve. Recent export orders have improved slightly but need to see continuity.
Overall, downstream demand or gradually into the seasonal off-season, PVC fundamentals continue to be weak. The recent impact of macro sentiment on commodities is more obvious, December is a period of intensive policy introduction, short-term PVC is still expected to continue in the fundamentals and macro game range, cautious to look at this round of PVC above the rebound height.
Post time: Dec-22-2022