Ngasohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, ngokusho kukaZhuo Chuang Information, kusukela ngoMeyi, cishe isigamu samandla okukhiqiza sesishintshiwe kulo nyaka.Nokho, uma kubhekwa umthamo wamanje wokulungisa oshicilelwe, inani lezinkampani ezimemezele uhlelo lokunakekela ngo-June lincane uma kuqhathaniswa.Umthamo usuwonke wokuhlolwa ngoJuni kulindeleke ukuthi ube ngaphansi kwalowo ngoMeyi.Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yokuthi kusekhona amandla amaningi okukhiqiza ezindaweni eziyinhloko zokukhiqiza ezifana ne-Inner Mongolia ne-Xinjiang ezingakaze zilungiswe, kuyadingeka ukuqhubeka nokunaka ukuthuthukiswa kokugcinwa kwemishini.Mayelana nokufakwa phesheya kwezilwandle, ukufakwa kwe-US okwalungiswa kabusha ngemuva kwegagasi elibandayo ngoMashi, imakethe ngokuvamile ilindele ukuthi izobe isilungisiwe futhi isebenze ngemithwalo ephezulu ekupheleni kukaJuni.Kudingeka ukuqhubeka nokunaka ukuthi zikhona yini izici ezingalindelekile.Mayelana nesidingo, i-PVC yamanje ezansi nomfula inokuqina okuqinile ngaphansi kwesimo senzuzo engeyinhle.Isiqalo esingezansi samapayipi ngokuyisisekelo sigcinwa cishe ku-80%, futhi ukuqala kwephrofayili kuyahlukahluka, ngo-2-7 kuba okuyinhloko.Futhi ngokuqonda kwethu, ukushintshwa kwe-PVC nge-PE akufinyeleleki ngesikhathi esifushane, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ukuqina kwesidingo sesikhathi esifushane kusanele.Kodwa sidinga ukunaka ukuthi isimo sezulu eNingizimu ye-China naseMpumalanga ye-China ngoJuni sizothinta isidingo sezindlu ezithengiswayo ezansi nomfula.Uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo ngoJuni kulindeleke ukuthi lube buthaka kunalolo lukaMeyi, kodwa ukungqubuzana okuphelele phakathi kokunikezwa nokufunwa akukukhulu.
Mayelana nezindleko, uJuni yinyanga yokugcina yekota yesibili.Izinqubomgomo zokusetshenziswa kwamandla kwezinye izifunda zingaqiniswa ngokufanelekile ekupheleni kwekota.Njengamanje, i-Inner Mongolia igcina inqubomgomo yokuvinjelwa kwamandla ngendlela engafanele, futhi izinqubomgomo zesifunda sase-Ningxia zidonse ukunaka.Kulindeleke ukuthi i-calcium carbide igcine inani eliphezulu lika-4000-5000 yuan/ton ngoJuni.Ukusekelwa kokuphela kwezindleko ze-PVC kusekhona.
Mayelana ne-inventory, i-inventory yamanje ye-PVC isesimweni sokuchithwa okuqhubekayo, futhi izinkampani ezingezansi zinempahla encane kakhulu.Amabhizinisi adinga nje ukuthenga ngaphansi kwamanani aphezulu, futhi i-inventory ingaphansi kakhulu kwezinga leminyaka edlule.I-inventory ephansi kanye nokwehliswa kwempahla okuqhubekayo kubonisa ukuthi izinto eziyisisekelo ze-PVC zinempilo.Imakethe njengamanje inaka kakhulu i-PVC yokusungula.Uma kukhona ukuqoqwa kwempahla, kulindeleke ukuthi kuthinte kakhulu ukucabanga kwemakethe.Isamba esiphelele se-PVC ngoJuni singakhuphuka, kodwa kulindeleke ukuthi sisengaphansi kwezinga leminyaka edlule.
Sekukonke, uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka nokufunwa lungaba buthaka kunoMeyi, kodwa ukuphikisana akukukhulu, uhlangothi lwezindleko lusasekelwa, i-inventory iphansi kakhulu futhi ukukhishwa okuqhubekayo kusekela intengo ye-PVC.NgoJuni, umdlalo phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo kanye nezindleko, i-PVC ingase ishintshe kabanzi.
Isu lokusebenza:
Ukushintshashintsha okubanzi kulindeleke ngoJuni.Phezulu, naka i-9200-9300 yuan/ton, futhi ngezansi unake ukusekelwa kwe-8500-8600 yuan/ton.Isisekelo samanje sinamandla uma kuqhathaniswa, futhi ezinye izinkampani ezansi nomfula zingase zicabangele ukuthenga inani elincane lemisebenzi yokubiyela kumadiphu.
Izingozi zokungaqiniseki: umthelela wokuvikelwa kwemvelo kwendawo kanye nezinqubomgomo zokusetshenziswa kwamandla ezintengo ze-calcium carbide;ukubuyiswa kwemishini yediski yangaphandle ibuthakathaka kunokulindeleke emakethe;isidingo sezindlu ezithengiswayo siba buthaka ngenxa yesimo sezulu;amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe ashintshashintsha kakhulu;izingozi ezinkulu, njll.
Ukubuyekezwa kwemakethe
Kusukela ngomhla ka-28 Meyi, inkontileka eyinhloko ye-PVC ivale ku-8,600 yuan/ton, ushintsho -2.93% kusukela ngo-April 30. Intengo ephakeme kakhulu yayingu-9345 yuan/ton futhi intengo ephansi yayingu-8540 yuan/ton.
Umfanekiso 1: Isitayela sezinkontileka eziyinhloko ze-PVC
Ekuqaleni kukaMeyi, inkontileka eyinhloko ye-PVC yaguquguquka yaya phezulu, futhi isikhungo sonke samandla adonsela phansi sanyukela phezulu.Maphakathi nasekupheleni kwezinsuku eziyishumi, ngaphansi kwethonya lenqubomgomo kanye nemibono emikhulu, izimpahla eziningi zehla njengempendulo.I-PVC yayinemigqa emithathu yethunzi emide elandelanayo, futhi inkontileka eyinhloko yake yehla isuka ku-9,200 yuan/ton yaya kububanzi obungu-8,400-8500 yuan/ton.Ngesikhathi sokulungiswa okuphansi kwemakethe yesikhathi esizayo phakathi nezinsuku ezimaphakathi nezakamuva, ngenxa yokutholakala okuqinile okuphelele kwemakethe yendawo, uhlu lwamanani lwaqhubeka lwehla lwafika ezingeni eliphansi, futhi ububanzi bokulungiswa bukhawulelwe.Ngenxa yalokho, isisekelo senkontileka yamabala e-East China sikhuphuke kakhulu safinyelela ku-500-600 yuan/ton.
Okwesibili, izici ezithonya amanani
1. Izinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphuka nomfula
Kusukela ngo-May 27, intengo ye-calcium carbide eNyakatho-ntshonalanga ye-China yayingu-4675 yuan/ton, inguquko engu-3.89% kusukela ngo-April 30, intengo ephakeme kakhulu yayingu-4800 yuan/ton, kanti intengo ephansi yayiyi-4500 yuan/ton;intengo ye-calcium carbide eMpumalanga China yayingu-5,025 yuan/ton, uma kuqhathaniswa no-April Ushintsho lwe-3.08% ngomhla ka-30, intengo ephakeme kakhulu yi-5300 yuan/ton, intengo ephansi kakhulu yi-4875 yuan/ton;intengo ye-calcium carbide eNingizimu yeShayina ingu-5175 yuan/ton, inguquko engu-4.55% kusukela ngo-April 30, inani eliphakeme kakhulu lingu-5400 yuan/ton, kanti intengo ephansi yi-4950 yuan/Ton.
NgoMeyi, intengo ye-calcium carbide ngokuvamile yayizinzile.Ekupheleni kwenyanga, ngokuncipha kokuthengwa kwe-PVC, intengo yehle izinsuku ezimbili zilandelana.Intengo eMpumalanga China naseNingizimu China ingu-4800-4900 yuan/ton.Ukwehla kwezintengo ze-calcium carbide kwenze buthaka ukusekela kokuphela kwezindleko ekupheleni kwenyanga.NgoMeyi, i-Inner Mongolia yagcina isimo sokunqanyulwa kukagesi ngendlela engafanele, futhi isimo saseNingxia sasikhathazekile.
Kusukela ngomhla ka-27 Meyi, intengo ye-ethylene ye-CFR eNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia yayingu-US$1,026/ton, ukuguqulwa okungu--7.23% kusuka ku-April 30. Inani eliphakeme kakhulu lalingu-US$1,151/ton kanye nenani eliphansi kakhulu lalingu-US$1,026/ton.Mayelana nentengo ye-ethylene, intengo ye-ethylene yehle kakhulu ngoMeyi.
Kusukela ngomhla ka-28 Meyi, i-coke yesibili ye-metallurgical e-Inner Mongolia yayingu-2605 yuan/ton, ushintsho lwama-27.07% kusukela ngo-April 30. Intengo ephakeme kakhulu yayingu-2605 yuan/ton futhi intengo ephansi yayingu-2050 yuan/ton.
Ngokombono wamanje, amandla okukhiqiza amenyezelwa ngoJuni ukuze kulungiswe kabusha mancane, futhi isidingo se-calcium carbide kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule.Futhi uJuni inyanga yokugcina yekota yesibili, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi inqubomgomo yokulawula ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okubili kwezinye izifunda ingase iqiniswe.E-Inner Mongolia, kunethuba elikhulu lokuthi isimo samanje semikhawulo yamandla angajwayelekile sizoqhubeka.Inqubomgomo yokulawula kabili izothinta ukunikezwa kwe-calcium carbide futhi iphinde ithinte izindleko ze-PVC, okuyisici esingaqinisekile ngoJuni.
2. Umfula uyaqala
Kusukela ngo-May 28, ngokusho kwedatha yomoya, izinga lokusebenza jikelele le-PVC ekhuphukayo lalingu-70%, ushintsho lwamaphesenti angu-17.5 kusukela ngo-Ephreli 30. Kusukela ngo-May 14, izinga lokusebenza lendlela ye-calcium carbide yayingu-82.07%, ushintsho. ngamaphesenti angu-0.34 kusukela ngoMeyi 10.
NgoMeyi, amabhizinisi okukhiqiza aqala ukunakekelwa kwentwasahlobo, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ukulahlekelwa okuphelele kwesondlo ngoMeyi kuzodlula u-April.Ukwehla ohlangothini lokunikezela kwenza ukuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kuqine.NgoJuni, kwamenyezelwa uhlelo lokunakekela imishini enamandla okukhiqiza amathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.45.Ngokwezibalo ezivela kuZhuo Chuang Information, kusukela kulo nyaka, cishe isigamu samandla okukhiqiza sesishintshiwe.Izifunda ze-Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, kanye ne-Shandong zinamandla amakhulu okukhiqiza anganakekelwa.Njengamanje, kusukela kudatha eshicilelwe, inombolo encane kuphela yezinkampani ezimemezele ukugcinwa.Umthamo wesondlo ngoJuni kulindeleke ukuthi ube ngaphansi kwalowo wangoMeyi.Ukulandelela kudinga ukunaka kakhulu isimo sesondlo.
Ngaphezu kwesimo sokunakekela ekhaya, imakethe njengamanje ilindele ukuthi isikhathi sokutholwa kwemishini yase-US sibe sekupheleni kukaJuni, futhi ingxenye yomthelela olindelekile wemakethe ekuhlinzekweni phesheya kwezilwandle kanye nesifunda sase-India kubonisiwe ngoJuni. Ikhotheshini ye-Formosa Plastics.
Sekukonke, ukunikezwa ngoJuni kungase kube ngaphezulu kwalokho ngoMeyi.
3. Ukuqala komfula
Kusukela ngo-May 28, ngokusho kwedatha yomoya, izinga lokusebenza eliphansi le-PVC eMpumalanga China laliyi-69%, ushintsho lwe--4% kusukela ngo-Ephreli 30;izinga lokusebenza kweNingizimu yeShayina ezansi nomfula lalingama-74%, uguquko lwamaphuzu angama-0 ukusuka ku-April 30;ezansi nomfula eNyakatho yeShayina Izinga lokusebenza lalingu-63%, ushintsho lwamaphuzu angamaphesenti angu-6 ukusuka ngomhla ka-30 ku-April.
Mayelana nokuqalwa phansi komfula, nakuba inzuzo yepayipi enengxenye enkulu impofu kakhulu, igcinwe cishe ku-80%;mayelana namaphrofayili, ukuqala ngokuvamile cishe ku-60-70%.Inzuzo ye-downstream imbi kakhulu kulo nyaka.Bekunezinhlelo zokuyinyusa isaqala, kodwa yabuye yahoxiswa ngenxa yokungamukelwa kahle kwamatheminali.Nokho, umfula ongezansi ubonise ukuqina okuqinile ekwakhiweni kulo nyaka.
Njengamanje, izinkampani ezansi nomfula azivumelani nokuguquguquka okukhulu kwamanani e-PVC.Nokho, isidingo esingaphansi komfula siyakwazi ukumelana naso.Futhi ngokuqonda kwethu, umjikelezo wokushintshwa komfula we-PVC ne-PE ngokuvamile mude, futhi isidingo sesikhathi esifushane kulindeleke ukuba samukeleke.NgoJuni, ezinye izifunda zingase zithinte ama-oda angaphansi komfula ngenxa yesimo sezulu, kodwa amathuba okuba nendawo yokudayisa aphansi.
4. Inventory
Kusukela ngo-May 28, ngokusho kwedatha yomoya, i-PVC yokusungula yezenhlalakahle yayingamathani angu-461,800, ushintsho lwe--0.08% kusukela ngo-Ephreli 30;I-inventory ekhuphukayo yayingamathani angama-27,000, ushintsho lwe--0.18% ukusuka ngomhlaka-30 Ephreli.
Ngokusho kwedatha ye-Longzhong ne-Zhuochuang, i-inventory iqhubekile nokuncipha kakhulu.Kubuye kuqondwe ukuthi ngenxa yokuthi intengo ye-PVC endaweni engezansi yomfula iqhubekile nokuba phezulu ekuqaleni, futhi indawo ibonise ukuqina okunamandla kunekusasa, i-inventory ephansi yomfula iphansi kakhulu, futhi ngokuvamile idingeka nje ukuze uthole. izimpahla., Abanye abangaphansi komfula bathi intengo ingu-8500-8600 yuan / ton lapho ukuzimisela ukugcwalisa izimpahla kunamandla, futhi intengo ephezulu isekelwe ngokuyinhloko ekufuneni okuqinile.
I-inventory yamanje iyisiginali ukuthi imakethe ikhathazeke kakhulu ngayo.Imakethe ngokuvamile ikholelwa ukuthi ukwehla okuqhubekayo kohlu lwempahla kubonisa ukuthi isidingo esiqinile esingezansi siyamukeleka futhi intengo isenezinga elithile lokusekelwa.Uma kunephuzu le-inflection ku-inventory, lizoba nomthelela omkhulu kulokho okulindelwe yimakethe, futhi ukunakekelwa okuqhubekayo kuyadingeka.
5. Ukuhlaziywa kokusabalalisa
Ukusabalala kwenkontileka yesikhathi esizayo yentengo eyinhloko ye-East China: Ephreli 30 kuya kuMeyi 28, isisekelo soguquko singu-80 yuan/ton to 630 yuan/ton, isisekelo soguquko lwesonto eledlule ngu-0 yuan/ton ukuya ku-285 yuan/ton .
Ngokuthintwa ukuthambekela kokwehla kwemakethe yesikhathi esizayo maphakathi no-May kuya ngasekupheleni, isisekelo sasiqinile, okubonisa ukuthi imakethe yamabala yonke yayiqinile futhi ukwehla kwentengo bekunomkhawulo.
09-01 Umehluko Wentengo Yenkontileka: Kusukela ngomhla zingama-30 kuMbasa kuya kumhla zingama-28 kuNhlaba, umehluko wentengo ubusuka ku-240 yuan/ton kuya ku-400 yuan/ton, futhi umehluko wentengo usuka ku-280 yuan/ton kuya ku-355 yuan/ton ngesonto eledlule.
I-Outlook
Ukushintshashintsha okubanzi kulindeleke ngoJuni.Phezulu, naka i-9200-9300 yuan/ton, futhi ngezansi unake ukusekelwa kwe-8500-8600 yuan/ton.Isisekelo samanje sinamandla uma kuqhathaniswa, futhi ezinye izinkampani ezansi nomfula zingase zicabangele ukuthenga inani elincane lemisebenzi yokubiyela kumadiphu.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-14-2021