Padivi rekupa, sekureva kwaZhuo Chuang Ruzivo, kubva muna Chivabvu, ingangoita hafu yehuwandu hwekugadzira yakagadziridzwa gore rino.Nekudaro, tichitarisa kubva kune yazvino yakadhindwa yekuchengetedza simba, nhamba yemakambani akazivisa chirongwa chekugadzirisa munaJune idiki.Huwandu hwese hwekuongorora muna Chikumi hunotarisirwa kuve hushoma pane hwaMay.Nekudaro, nekuda kwekuti kuchine huwandu hwekugadzira hunyanzvi munzvimbo huru dzekugadzira dzakadai seInner Mongolia neXinjiang dzisina kuvandudzwa, zvinofanirwa kuenderera mberi nekuteerera kusimudzira kwekugadzirisa michina.Panyaya yekumisikidzwa kwemhiri kwemakungwa, kune zvimisikidzo zveUS zvakagadziridzwa mushure mekutonhora kwemhepo munaKurume, musika unowanzo tarisira kuti ivo vachagadziridzwa uye kumhanya nemitoro yepamusoro mukupera kwaJune.Zvakakosha kuramba uchiteerera kana pane zvinhu zvisingatarisirwi.Panyaya yekuda, ikozvino PVC kuzasi kune kuoma kwakasimba pasi pemamiriro ekushaya purofiti.Kudzika kwemvura kutanga kwepombi kunochengetedzwa zvakanyanya pa80%, uye kutanga kweiyo mbiri kunosiyana, ne2-7 ichiva iyo huru.Uye maererano nekunzwisisa kwedu, kutsiva kwePVC nePE hakugoneki munguva pfupi, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti kusimba kwekuda kwenguva pfupi kuchiri kukwana.Asi isu tinofanirwa kutarisisa kuti mamiriro ekunze muSouth China neEast China muna Chikumi achakanganisa kudzika kwezvivakwa zvinodiwa.Iyo yekugovera uye yekuda divi muna Chikumi inotarisirwa kuve isina kusimba kupfuura iyo muna Chivabvu, asi kupokana kwese pakati pekupa uye kudiwa hakuna kukura.
Panyaya yemitengo, June mwedzi wekupedzisira wekota yechipiri.Mitemo yekushandisa simba mune mamwe matunhu inogona kusimbiswa zvakafanira pakupera kwekota.Parizvino, Inner Mongolia inochengetedza isina kurongeka yekudzora simba, uye Ningxia matunhu marongero akakwezva kutarisa.Zvinotarisirwa kuti calcium carbide ichachengetedza mutengo wakakwirira we4000-5000 yuan / toni munaJune.PVC mutengo wekupedzisira rutsigiro ichiripo.
Panyaya yezvinyorwa, ikozvino PVC inventory iri mumamiriro ekuenderera mberi kwekugadzirisa, uye makambani ezasi ane zvinyorwa zvishoma.Mabhizinesi anongoda kutenga pasi pemitengo yakakwira, uye hesiti iri pasi peyero yemakore apfuura.Yakaderera heventory uye kuenderera mberi kwekudzikisira kunoratidza kuti PVC yakakosha ine hutano.Musika parizvino unobhadhara zvakanyanya kune PVC hesiti.Kana paine kuunganidzwa kwezvinyorwa, zvinotarisirwa kukanganisa zvakanyanya musika mafungiro.Huwandu hwese hwePVC muna Chikumi hunogona kusimuka, asi zvinotarisirwa kuti inogona kunge ichiri yakaderera kupfuura mwero wemakore apfuura.
Pakati pese, chikamu chekugovera uye chekudiwa chingave chisina simba kupfuura muna Chivabvu, asi kupokana hakuna hombe, mutengo wedivi uchiri kutsigirwa, iyo inventory yakaderera zvakanyanya uye inoenderera ichidhirowa inotsigira mutengo wePVC.MunaJune, mutambo pakati pekupa uye kudiwa uye mutengo, PVC inogona kuchinjika zvakanyanya.
Operation strategy:
Kuchinja kukuru kunotarisirwa muna Chikumi.Pamusoro, teerera kune 9200-9300 yuan/ton, uye pazasi teerera kutsigirwa kwe8500-8600 yuan/ton.Hwaro hwazvino hwakasimba, uye mamwe makambani ari pasi pemvura angafunga kutenga mashoma ehedge mashandiro pamadips.
Kusavimbika njodzi: kukanganisa kwekuchengetedzwa kwezvakatipoteredza uye mitemo yekushandisa simba pamitengo ye calcium carbide;kudzoreredza kwekunze dhisiki zvishandiso kwakaderera pane zvinotarisirwa pamusika;real estate kudiwa kunopera nekuda kwemamiriro ekunze;mitengo yemafuta asina kuchena inochinja zvakanyanya;macro ngozi, nezvimwewo.
Kuongorora kwemusika
Kubva munaMay 28, chibvumirano chikuru chePVC chakavharwa pa8,600 yuan / ton, -2.93% kuchinja kubva munaApril 30. Mutengo wepamusoro waiva 9345 yuan / ton uye mutengo wakaderera waiva 8540 yuan / ton.
Mufananidzo 1: Maitiro ePVC makuru zvibvumirano
Mukutanga kwaChivabvu, kondirakiti huru yePVC yakachinja ichikwira kumusoro, uye nzvimbo yese yegiravhiti yakakwira kumusoro.Pakati nepakati nekupera kwemazuva gumi, pasi pesimba repolicy uye macro manzwiro, zvinhu zvakawanda zvakawira mukupindura.PVC yaive nemitsetse mitatu yakatevedzana yemumvuri mirefu, uye kondirakiti huru yakambodonha kubva pa9,200 yuan/ton kusvika pa8,400-8500 yuan/ton range.Munguva yekudzika kwekugadziriswa kwemusika wenguva yemberi pakati nepakati nemazuva ekupedzisira, nekuda kwehuwandu hwakasimba hwekutengesa kwemusika wepanzvimbo, zvinyorwa zvakaramba zvichidzika kusvika kune imwe nzvimbo yakaderera, uye kugadziriswa kwekugadzirisa kwakange kwakaderera.Nekuda kweizvozvo, iyo East China spot-main kontrakiti hwaro yakakwira zvakanyanya kusvika pa500-600 yuan/ton.
Chechipiri, mutengo unokonzera zvinhu
1. Kumusoro kwemvura mbishi
Kubva paMay 27, mutengo we calcium carbide muNorthwest China waiva 4675 yuan / ton, 3.89% kuchinja kubva munaApril 30, mutengo wakakwirira waiva 4800 yuan / ton, uye mutengo wakaderera waiva 4500 yuan / ton;mutengo we calcium carbide muEast China waiva 5,025 yuan / ton, zvichienzaniswa naApril Kuchinja kwe3.08% pa30, mutengo mukuru ndeye 5300 yuan / ton, mutengo wakaderera ndeye 4875 yuan / ton;mutengo wecalcium carbide muSouth China i5175 yuan/ton, shanduko ye4.55% kubva Kubvumbi 30, mutengo wepamusoro i5400 yuan/ton, uye mutengo wakaderera i4950 yuan/Ton.
Muna Chivabvu, mutengo wecalcium carbide waive wakagadzikana.Pakupera kwemwedzi, nekudzikira kwekutenga kwePVC, mutengo wakadzikira kwemazuva maviri akateedzana.Mutengo muEast China neSouth China i4800-4900 yuan/ton.Kudonha kwemitengo yecalcium carbide kwakanetesa kutsigirwa kwemutengo pakupera kwemwedzi.Muna Chivabvu, Inner Mongolia yakachengetedza mamiriro emagetsi asina kujairika, uye nyika yeNingxia yainetsekana.
Kubva munaMay 27, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene mutengo waiva US $ 1,026 / ton, kuchinja kwe -7.23% kubva munaApril 30. Mutengo wepamusoro waiva US $ 1,151 / ton uye mutengo wakaderera waiva US $ 1,026 / ton.Nezve mutengo we ethylene, mutengo we ethylene wainyanya kuderera muna Chivabvu.
Kubva munaMay 28, yechipiri metallurgical coke muInner Mongolia yaiva 2605 yuan / ton, kuchinja kwe27.07% kubva munaApril 30. Mutengo wepamusoro waiva 2605 yuan / ton uye mutengo wakaderera waiva 2050 yuan / ton.
Kubva pamaonero azvino, huwandu hwekugadzira hwakaziviswa muna Chikumi hwekugadzirisa hushoma, uye kudiwa kwecalcium carbide kunotarisirwa kuwedzera.Uye Chikumi ndiwo mwedzi wekupedzisira wekota yechipiri, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti iyo mbiri yesimba rekushandisa simba mune mamwe matunhu inogona kusimbiswa.MuInner Mongolia, pane mukana wakakura wekuti mamiriro azvino ezvirambidzo zvesimba zvisina kufanira zvichaenderera mberi.Iyo mbiri yekutonga mutemo ichakanganisa kupihwa kwecalcium carbide uye inowedzera kukanganisa mutengo wePVC, iyo isingazivikanwe chinhu munaJune.
2. Kumusoro kunotanga
Kubva munaMay 28, maererano nemhepo data, iyo yose yekushanda kwePVC kumusoro kwepamusoro yaiva 70%, kuchinja kwe -17.5 muzana kubva munaApril 30. Kubva munaMay 14, kushandiswa kwemaitiro e calcium carbide yaiva 82.07%, kuchinja. ye -0.34 muzana kubva muna Chivabvu 10.
Muna Chivabvu, mabhizinesi ekugadzira akatanga kugadzirisa kwechirimo, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti kurasikirwa kwese kwekugadzirisa muna Chivabvu kuchapfuura Kubvumbi.Kuderera padivi rekupa kunoita kuti huwandu hwese hwemusika huve hwakasimba.Muna Chikumi, chirongwa chekuchengetedza michina ine huwandu hwekugadzira huwandu hwematani emamiriyoni 1.45 yakaziviswa.Zvinoenderana nenhamba kubva kuZhuo Chuang Ruzivo, kubva gore rino, ingangoita hafu yehuwandu hwekugadzira yakagadziridzwa.Matunhu eXinjiang, Inner Mongolia, neShandong ane hukuru hwakakura husina kuchengetedzwa.Parizvino, kubva kune yakadhindwa data, vashoma chete vemakambani vakazivisa kuchengetedza.Iro vhoriyamu yekuchengetedza muna Chikumi inotarisirwa kuve shoma pane iyo muna Chivabvu.Kutevera kunoda kunyatsoteerera mamiriro ekugadzirisa.
Pamusoro pemamiriro ekugadzirisa mudzimba, musika parizvino unotarisira kuti nguva yekudzoreredza yemidziyo yeUS ichave pakupera kwaChikumi, uye chikamu chekukanganisa kwemusika pakupihwa kwekunze uye dunhu reIndia rakaratidzwa muna Chikumi. quotation yeFormosa Plastics.
Pakazara, kuwanikwa munaJune kunogona kunge kwakakwira kupfuura muna Chivabvu.
3. Kudzika kwemvura kutanga
Kubva munaMay 28, maererano nemashoko emhepo, kuderera kwekushanda kwePVC muEast China kwaiva 69%, kuchinja kwe -4% kubva munaApril 30;chiyero chekushanda kweSouth China nechekudzika kwaiva 74%, kuchinja kwe0 muzana kubva munaApril 30;iyo yakadzika yeNorth China Chiyero chekushanda chaive 63%, shanduko ye -6 muzana kubva muna Kubvumbi 30.
Nezvekudzika kwekutanga-ups, kunyange zvazvo purofiti yepombi ine chikamu chikuru iine urombo, yakachengetwa inenge 80%;maererano nemaprofiles, kutanga-up kunowanzoita 60-70%.Mari yepasi ishoma gore rino.Paive nehurongwa hwekuiwedzera munhanho yekutanga, asi zvakare yakapihwa nekuda kwekutadza kugamuchirwa kwekupedzisira.Zvisinei, kudzika kwakadzika kwakaratidza kusimba kwakasimba pakuvaka gore rino.
Parizvino, makambani epasi haakwanise kuchinjika kukuchinja kukuru kwemitengo yePVC.Zvisinei, kudiwa kwepasi kunowedzera kusimba.Uye maererano nekunzwisisa kwedu, kutenderera kwekudzika kwePVC nePE kunowanzova kureba, uye kudiwa kwenguva pfupi kunotarisirwa kugamuchirwa.Muna Chikumi, mamwe matunhu anogona kukanganisa maodha ezasi nekuda kwemamiriro ekunze, asi mukana wekutengesa kwakawanda wakaderera.
4. Inventory
Kubva munaMay 28, maererano nemhepo data, PVC social inventory yaiva 461,800 tani, kuchinja kwe -0.08% kubva munaApril 30;kukwira kwepamusoro kwaive matani makumi maviri nenomwe, shanduko ye -0.18% kubva Kubvumbi 30.
Zvinoenderana nedata reLongzhong naZhuochuang, iyo hesiti yakaramba ichidzikiswa zvakanyanya.Zvinonzwisiswa zvakare kuti nekuda kwekuti mutengo wePVC mujinga merwizi wakaramba uchikwira mukutanga, uye nzvimbo yakaratidza kusimba kwakasimba kupfuura remangwana, iyo yose yepasi pemvura inventory yakaderera kwazvo, uye kazhinji inongodiwa kuti uwane. zvinhu., Vamwe vari pasi pemvura vakati mutengo uri 8500-8600 yuan / ton apo chido chekuzadza zvinhu chakasimba, uye mutengo wepamusoro unonyanya kuenderana nezvinodiwa zvakasimba.
Ikozvino inventory chiratidzo chokuti misika inonyanya kunetseka pamusoro.Musika uyu unowanzo tenda kuti kuenderera mberi kwekushomeka kwezvinhu kunoratidza kuti kudiwa kwakasimba kwepasi kunogamuchirwa uye mutengo uchine kumwe kutsigirwa.Kana paine inflection point mune inventory, ichava nemhedzisiro yakakura pane zvinotarisirwa pamusika, uye kuenderera mberi kunodiwa.
5. Kuparadzira kuongorora
East China nzvimbo mutengo-main remangwana kondirakiti yakapararira: Kubvumbi 30 kusvika Chivabvu 28, hwaro hwekuchinja huwandu 80 yuan/tani kusvika 630 yuan/tani, hwaro hwekuchinja huwandu hwevhiki yapfuura i0 yuan/ton kusvika 285 yuan/ton .
Yakakanganiswa nehuwandu hwekuderera mumusika weramangwana pakati-kusvika-kupera kwaMay, hwaro hwacho hwakanga hwakasimba, zvichiratidza kuti misika yese yenzvimbo yaive yakasimba uye kuderera kwemutengo kwaive kushoma.
09-01 Contract Price Difference: Kubva Kubvumbi 30 kusvika May 28th, mutengo wakasiyana kubva ku240 yuan / ton kusvika ku400 yuan / ton, uye mutengo wemutengo unotangira kubva ku280 yuan / ton kusvika ku355 yuan / toni muvhiki yapfuura.
Outlook
Kuchinja kukuru kunotarisirwa muna Chikumi.Pamusoro, teerera kune 9200-9300 yuan/ton, uye pazasi teerera kutsigirwa kwe8500-8600 yuan/ton.Hwaro hwazvino hwakasimba, uye mamwe makambani ari pasi pemvura angafunga kutenga mashoma ehedge mashandiro pamadips.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-14-2021