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PVC: Policy landing and expectation “weakening”

PVC: Policy landing and expectation ”weakening”. The Central Economic Work Conference still sets up “housing does not fry”. The short -term policy will enter the gap period, and the “expected driver” will gradually weaken. Under the influence of the epidemic, economic data such as monthly real estate, social finances, and consumption may continue to weaken, and the alert surface has become a trading reality. Strategic: Unilateral empty V2305; arbitrage considers 5-9 anti-sets.

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Core point: The neutral and empty Central Economic Work Conference still sets up “housing does not fry”, the proximal policy will enter the gap period, and the “expected driver” will gradually weaken. Under the influence of the epidemic, economic data such as monthly real estate, social finances, and consumption may continue to weaken, and the alert surface has become a trading reality. Strategic: Unilateral empty V2305; arbitrage considers 5-9 anti-sets.

Alkaline impact on PVC: neutral pyrine prices are stable. Shandong 32%liquid -alkali was reported to 1095 yuan/ton, and tons of 1296 yuan. Overseas alkaline prices have dropped slightly. The overall inventory of alkali is rebounded.

Raw material support: neutral 1) 3,700 yuan/ton of Wuhai Electric Stone, an increase of 100 per ton from last week, and the loss of the electric stones narrowed; 2) the expected to rise by 60 to 1520 yuan/ton in orchid charcoal. 3) Ethylene is reduced by $ 871/ton, and VCM CFR Far East rose 45 to $ 648/ton.

Supply: Neutral partiality 1) The start of construction slightly. The overall operating rate of PVC was 70.85%, a month -on -month increase of 0.21 percentage points; of which the PVC operating rate of the Corporal Method was 69.76%, an increase of 1.61 percentage points from the previous month. 2) Shandong Xinfa’s 400,000 tons of new device plans to be full this week.

Requirements: Neutral partiality 1) The decline in downstream products declined: The operating rate of pipes was 42.75%, a decrease of 2.70%from last week, and the operating rate of the profile was 35.00%, a decrease of 1.25%from last week. 2) Increase pre -sale volume. The pre -sale volume was 589,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from last week. 3) The outer disk quotation rebounds. Recently, India’s agricultural irrigation has a strong demand for PVC. The domestic ethylene method is better. The export is to be delivered by 197,500 tons, an increase of 0.76 million tons from the previous period. 4) In November, real estate data was weakened from the previous month, and the real estate was still having difficulty grinding the bottom.

Profit: neutral profit rises. Electric stones integrated tons of-665 yuan, and Shandong Foreign Purchase Electro-Stone Tons of Electric Stone Tons of Electric Stone is -1210 yuan; North China ethylene method has risen to 1849 yuan/ton. PVC’s comprehensive profit of 567 yuan/ton, North China comprehensive profit loss narrowed to -69 yuan/ton; the two-ton price spread rose to 2861 yuan. The losses of blue charcoal, electric stones, and PVC end losses in the PVC industry chain narrowed, and the comprehensive profits were close to the profit and loss balance in North China.

Macro: Neutral 1) Domestic: On Friday, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that “houses do not fry”. 2) International: Europe and the United States interest rate hikes meet expectations, Japan accidentally raised interest rates.


Post time: Dec-28-2022