PVC latest market trend(2)

The PVC market is still in the volatile between cost support and demand, and the demand after the holiday is not as good as expected, while the price of alkaline roasted has fallen, the price of coal is repeated, and the overall cost support is still there. The market outlook can still look forward to more policies. The current real estate sales continue to improve, and it may gradually improve the status of housing enterprises. It still takes a certain amount of time to be transmitted to the PVC terminal. The current PVC situation is difficult to change. Essence

1. Market resume

In February, PVC (6334, -39.00, -0.61%) showed the first fell and then rose. Before the Spring Festival, PVC continues to rise under the stimulus of real estate policy and optimistic demand. After the festival, the downstream re -production and re -production are slow. The situation of the downstream orders is deviated. Subsequently, the price of alkali fell, the seesaw effect appeared, plus PVC destocking, and the market's predictions for the two sessions were better. PVC rose after the bottom of the PVC. The price of alkali fell from 1030 yuan/ton to 870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.5%.

Second, the start of construction is improved, and some new capacity releases

In February 2023, the PVC output was 1.781 million tons, a year -on -year increase of 1.3%, a cumulative increase of 1.9%year -on -year, and a Nissan ring increase of 2.3%month -on -month. Guangxi Huayi's 400,000 tons of ethylene method was mass -produced in late February. In February, thanks to the decline in the price of electric stone and the rising PVC price in the second half of the month, the profit of the PVC of the outsourcing method was repaired up. Gradually picked up. In February, PVC averaged 79.32%monthly, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from January. In terms of production and production, the 400,000 tons of ethylene device in Julong Chemical has not yet been mass -produced. Shandong Xinfa 400,000 tons of device has opened 200,000 tons, and another 200,000 -ton device has not been opened. Test the car.

Third, the margin of real estate is better, and the expectation is still there

In 2022, PVC consumption was 20.24 million tons, a year -on -year decrease of 2.7%. During the Spring Festival, the high -frequency data of real estate performed poorly, but after the Spring Festival, from the high -frequency data of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium -sized cities and the transaction area of second -hand housing, the sales popularity of new houses and second -hand housing continued to warm up. According to the data of the Shell Research Institute, in February 2023, the second -hand housing belt looked at the index of 30.9, an increase of 17.2 month -on -month, the new house case index was 24.6, an increase of 11.0 from the previous month, and the real estate was repaired by the marginal. In February, the PMI of the manufacturing industry was 52.6, and the upward of 2.5 points from the previous month. The non -manufacturing PMI was 56.3, and the uplink of 1.9 points was exceeded, all of which exceeded the market expectations. In February, the construction industry PMI was 60.2, which was higher than the previous value of 56.4. The warm macro PMI data has strengthened the market's expectations for economic recovery.

4. Foreign demand weakened, but it is tough

In December 2022, the export of PVC powder was 126,000 tons, an increase of 48.8%month -on -month and a decrease of 34.6%year -on -year. In 2022, the export of PVC powder was 1.966 million tons, an increase of 12.1%year -on -year. In December, the export of PVC floor exports was 371,000 tons, an increase of 8.2%month -on -month and a decrease of 31.7%year -on -year. In 2022, the export of PVC floor exports was 50.71 million tons, a year -on -year decrease of 11.5%, of which 2.52 million tons were exported to the United States, accounting for 50%. The PVC exports re -volume in December. The market is expected to be implemented in February in February, so India ’s PVC imports have been implemented in February, so India’ s PVC imports have increased in a short -term increase in my country.

Since May 2022, with the promotion of interest rates from the outer market, the PVC powder exit has declined from the previous month since May, and floor exports have weakened from the previous month from July. In 2023, PVC powder exports and floor exports are expected to decline. First of all, under the background of interest rate rising, the decline in overseas demand is relatively certain. Secondly, North America is the world's largest PVC net export area. From 2021 to the first July this year, it is affected by the cold wave and the congestion of the port. The exports have fallen significantly, but these problems have been alleviated. In addition, the inventory is high. It has increased significantly, and the expected US export volume in 2023 will be crowded in my country's PVC export share.

From the middle and long term, foreign demand weakened, but from the export profit and the newly added signing order, there is time to have a volume, and the export has a certain toughness.

Five, the market outlook

In the supply side, some new devices are still expected to be put into production in March. With the repair of the stock, the stock has risen to a relatively high level, and the output expectations in March are high. From the perspective of real estate high -frequency data, the sales of new houses and second -hand housing are continuously warming up, and the marginal repair of real estate is underway. In February, the macro PMI data was warm, which strengthened the market's expectations for economic recovery, and the overall demand was better. At present, the upstream inventory and social inventory of PVC are at the same time at the same time, and the inventory pressure is still very large. The demand for PVC demand has higher requirements. If the demand is verified, the PVC has room for price increases. If the reality of demand is not good for the time being, the demand policy is expected to support, and the overall tendency will be more matched.Plastic Exterior Pvc Sheets 

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Post time: Mar-16-2023