Second,Cost-end analysis
Calcium carbide price center of gravity down in December, there are regional differences. The factory price in Wuhai and Ningxia was reduced by 100 yuan/ton. Due to the increase of calcium carbide construction and the decrease of demand side’s acceptance of high price, the price was lowered to promote sales. The purchase price of North China and Northeast China was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, mainly because the earlier purchase price was relatively high and its own cost pressure was great. As of 12.9, the factory price of calcium carbide in Wuhai is 3600 yuan/ton (compared to -100 at the beginning of the month). With the calcium carbide factory price reduction, some calcium carbide enterprises loss again; The cost of PVC enterprises with external calcium carbide method has dropped and the spot price has risen, and the losses of enterprises have decreased. Shandong integrated chlor-alkali enterprises have reduced their profits due to the declining liquid chlorine price, and the profits of chlor-alkali integrated devices in Northwest China are still there. At present, vinyl PVC enterprises still have profit space. In the short term, there is little change in the price of caustic soda in the near future. Although there is a downward trend in the profit of chlor-alkali integration, there is still a certain profit space. At present, the enterprise is not willing to actively reduce production.
Third, demand-side analysis
downstream starts decreased significantly month-on-month, maintain just need to purchase
Due to the small number of terminal orders, the enthusiasm of the downstream to start work is always low, and with the cold weather, the downstream will enter the seasonal low season. As of December 9, construction was running at 43% (-12%) in downstream North China, 50% (-18%) in downstream South China and 55% (-8%) in downstream East China. Overall, there is no sign of improvement in the demand for PVC terminal downstream products in the near future. Spot purchasing may continue to be dominated by replenishment on bargains, and there may be a small amount of stock before the festival in some parts. The overall demand end will continue to be weak.
In October, the front-end data of real estate continued to weaken, and the performance of the completion end was reasonable. Although the recent macro atmosphere improved and the real estate chain rebounded obviously, it still takes time to transmit to the real end of PVC demand, and the market is still trading the real estate repair expectation. In the main downstream, pipe sector: benefited from the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policy in the short term, some large enterprises recovered, and the construction of PVC pipe was slightly improved. However, as many downstream products enterprises planned to have a holiday one after the New Year’s Day, raw material procurement was not active. Profile plate: the limited enterprises in the north gradually recover; Southern construction is OK, maintain the normal operation before the double festival, the whole is about 4-6 percent, but the profile enterprise is still to take the raw materials on the low, the high price is still resistant. Flooring: Due to the overseas recession cycle combined with high inventories of goods manufactured by overseas traders, flooring exports are shrinking. The overall industry, real estate “three arrows” to boost the real estate can not form a boost in the short term, product enterprises did not get the order feedback.
Post time: Dec-21-2022