3. PVC marginal profit change and strategy selection
The profit and construction discussed by PVC as an example. The PVC phase market turning point is based on the above -mentioned article, and the “valuation+driver” logic is analyzed by the “valuation+driver” logic. As a valuation standard for profit, when the PVC enterprises of the outside world reaches a certain profit space (1000 above), it means that the overall profit level of the industry is good, which can be used as a high valuation, and the industry starts faster but demand is demand. In the off -season, the inventory is driven downward, and after seeing the top, it is used as a phased empty match. When the chlorine -alkali integration losses, most enterprises in the industry can lose money as low valuations. At this time, the driver needs to be paid attention to. For the fundamentals of PVC, the demand is generally improved and the departure is faster.
However, in the actual process, you can really encounter “low valuation+driver upward” to match more or “high valuation+drive down” to go to the air matching time. The above article PVC from 2016 to 2023 was an example. From 2016 and 2020-2021, the two-dial-up increase was more in macro-drives, including the improvement of the real estate industry in 2016, loose monetary policy in 2020, carbon neutralized in 2021. At the same time At the stage, industry profits have risen. The industry’s loss has been increased since June 2022, but under the support of alkaline -burnt the profit, the industry’s construction is not obvious, and the demand is influenced by real estate. It is always not obvious, and the market continues to be weak. Although it is in a relatively low valuation state but no drive, the PVC price has been hovering at a low level this year.
Judging from the current PVC, the profit of PVC companies in Shandong is around -800. Since June last year, it has been losing money. Shandong’s integrated profit is around-200. This year, it has been in a small loss state. Due to the cost advantage and profitability in the northwest, the reduction of production in the northwest is not obvious. In the first quarter of this year, there were 2-3 new sets of new devices. The production of high inventory continued last year. In the first quarter, it is still in a state of supply, so although PVC is in a relatively low valuation state, the price is difficult to perform. From the perspective of “valuation+driver”, low valuation is a sufficient condition for the price to rise in the future rather than the necessary conditions. This year’s PVC is driven by demand. The short -term PVC will continue the low vibration trend. In April, the existence of summer maintenance and demand recovery expectations, so you can try a small amount and more at the current price.
Profit will affect the behavioral model of the enterprise. As a chemical industry, upstream companies are relatively concentrated. In the short term, the changes in profitability in the short term will affect the construction of the upstream. Profit is transmitted to the price end by affecting the supply. Looking back at the historical market with the regular “valuation+driver” logic, the valuation is usually sufficient conditions, and most of the real impact on the market lies in the driver. The rebound returns to normal (for example, the cost of cold repairs is high, the glass will not be cold when the glass is lost, and the supply side will not be reduced immediately). At the same time, the industry is not profitable. The value of valuation is to combine the fundamentals of the product. For example, under the high valuation of varieties such as PVC, downstream will reduce buying goods, and similar alkali as a downstream glass is just needed. The raw materials cannot stop supply. The time is long). In addition, when judging the valuation, you need to pay attention to the process of the product. For example, for PVC, the production capacity of the outer electrical collection has fewer production capacity. The supply side has caused a large impact, and the profit loss industry of chlorine -alkali integrated enterprises will change. When choosing a strategy, the valuation can be referred to one of the choices. It is more needed to see the driver’s strength. Taking PVC as an example, the current valuation of most enterprises has not been high under the loss of losses. Demand, there is an expected to reduce production in April and the increase in demand. From the perspective of profit and loss than the perspective of profit and loss, a small amount can be matched at the current price. Focus on the situation of the later destinations. limited.
Post time: Mar-31-2023