Hot interpretation of PVC: From historical profit, choice(1)

Profit will affect the behavior model of enterprises. As a chemical industry, profits are transmitted to price changes by affecting upstream supply. Looking back at the historical market with the regular “valuation+driver” logic, the valuation is usually sufficient conditions. Most of the large market needs to be driven. When judging the valuation, you need to pay attention to the product process process. The impact of the supply side of the supply side is that most PVC companies currently have a high valuation under losses. The low price in the first quarter is mainly lies in no enough driving. In April, there is an expected to reduce production and increase demand. At the current price, you can match a small amount and pay attention to the speed of the database in the later period.

1. Determination of corporate behavior model

From the perspective of the history of the product, the four cycles of recovery, prosperity, recession, and depression are generally experienced. When the product is in the prosperous prosperity cycle, the profit and the industry’s high -level production capacity will be gradually launched. The industry has entered a decline. When the low profit is maintained for a period of time, it begins to enter the de -capacity stage. The concentration of the industry has gradually increased, and the capacity utilization rate has gradually increased to the recovery stage.

As a midstream industry, chemical industry, in addition to a few varieties with industry -based technical barriers to form an oligopoly, most varieties still have more participants (dozens to hundreds). dispersion. For general chemical varieties, upstream enterprises have a larger scale, have stronger bargaining ability, can control production capacity investment and actual supply through their own profits. Generally speaking When the prosperity cycle declines, it gradually eliminates the industry’s small production capacity companies. Under 2015-2016 supply-side reform and 2021 carbon neutralization policies, high-energy chemical varieties have been restricted (such as new glass fire production lines need to depend on indicators; The production is mainly based on the ethylene method; the new production capacity of the alkali aminoine method has increased, and the subsequent production is mainly based on the alkali method and the natural alkali method).

For most chemical enterprises, upstream and downstream companies can be flexibly adjusted according to their own profit conditions. For example, companies that are just losing money can still bear, but continuous losses may occur. Relatively high levels (such as the same period of the same period in the same period). Generally speaking, changes in upstream construction affect the short -term market, and the changes in downstream construction needs affect the medium and long -term market (short -term supply, long -term demand). Concentrated upstream industry profits have the impact on the construction. In addition to the profit affecting corporate behavior, in addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the seasonal maintenance status. For most chemicals, at least 1-2 industry centralized maintenance (mostly between May and September of each year). The amount of losses may exceed expectations, and under continuous profit, the upstream may minimize the maintenance cycle. (Among them, there are individual special cases. For example

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Post time: Mar-29-2023