At 15:10 on May 31, 2021, there was a fire in the tank area of Peak Rui Petrochemical Co., Ltd. in the Nandagang Management Zone of Cangzhou City. The Nandagang Industrial Park Management Committee immediately launched an emergency plan to organize public security, fire protection, safety supervision and other relevant functional departments After rushing to the scene for disposal, the traffic police department quickly blocked the surrounding roads.
Upon on-site inspection, the company’s oil storage tank was on fire and no casualties were caused. The fire department is organizing fire extinguishing and cooling on site. The cause of the accident is under investigation and verification.
On the morning of June 1, the Nandagang Industrial Park Management Committee notified that the enterprise within one kilometer of the fire point had ceased production, all personnel had been evacuated, and the relevant personnel of the involved enterprise had been controlled. The traffic police department controls the surrounding roads, and the disposal is carried out in an orderly manner. The cause of the accident is under investigation.
It is understood that the Nandagang Industrial Park is located in the northeast of Cangzhou City, Hebei Province, on the west bank of the Bohai Bay, covering an area of 296 square kilometers. It is the main production area of Dagang Oilfield and has abundant oil and natural gas resources. There are Dagang Petrochemical, Xinwang Petrochemical, Xinquan Petrochemical, Kaiyi Petrochemical, Xingshun Plastics, Yiqing Environmental Protection and other key enterprises in the zone.
Peak Rui Petrochemical, the company involved, is located in the petrochemical park in the third division of Nandagang Management Zone. It belongs to the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries. At present, the company is forced to suspend production within one kilometer, or it may have a certain impact on related industries.
Futures rebounded, PVC and styrene rose more than 3%
Yesterday, the futures market rebounded sharply, the black sector generally rose, and the chemical sector also rose gratifyingly.
As of the close, the black series continued to lead the gains. The main iron ore contracts rose 7.29%, the main PVC and styrene contracts rose more than 3%, the staple fiber, PTA, and ethylene glycol all rose more than 2%, and the plastic and PP rose more than 1%.
Styrene and PVC soared by more than 3%, and the weakening trend remains unchanged
In terms of styrene, the Tangshan Risun and Qingdao refining and chemical plants will be shut down for 5-6 days for maintenance in the short term. However, the 120,000 tons/year styrene plant of Sinochem Hongrun is expected to be put into operation in early June, and the overall supply will increase in June. The trend remains unchanged.
The cost of crude oil fluctuated at a high level, and the price of pure benzene fell. The pure benzene overhaul device restarted and the supply rebounded, but the low inventory level will continue, and the supply and demand gap will remain. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will be relatively strong and remain high and fluctuate, which will support the price of styrene.
In June, styrene production and imports are expected to increase, while downstream ABS enters the off-season in demand, EPS terminal demand weakens, supply and demand are loose, and styrene is expected to fluctuate and weaken.
As for PVC, affected by the government’s macro-control, the price of PVC dropped to near the cost line some time ago, and the market’s macro sentiment was weak. In addition, PVC and PE have a certain substitution relationship on the pipe demand side. Due to the substantial expansion of production capacity and the resumption of overseas production capacity, the price of PE has fallen, which is negative for the demand for PVC.
In the future, PVC manufacturers are entering the maintenance season one after another. The expected start-up load will drop sharply. In addition, downstream product factories tend to replenish goods in an appropriate amount on dips. The purchase enthusiasm is not high. The actual spot trading is slightly sluggish, and it is expected that it will continue to be volatile in the near future.
Polyester chains are generally rising, and the market outlook is still difficult to determine
In terms of PTA, thanks to the continued reduction of supply in the June contract of major manufacturers, and the unexpected failure of Yisheng Ningbo 4# at the end of the month, the supply of PTA circulation continued to be tight, and the supporting basis remained strong, and the market could make up for the increase.
However, the centralized maintenance of polyester began in mid-May, and the downstream start-up load has weakened. Overlapping the current warehouse receipts are still high, all of which have a certain degree of restraint on PTA. However, due to inventory and profit drag, it is expected that the start load of polyester will be reduced in June.
MEG’s fundamentals and future trends are also relatively clear: the current biggest bullish factor is low inventory. However, in June and beyond, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Satellite Petrochemical, Sanning and other new MEG production capacity of close to 3 million tons will be put into production one after another, and the substantial increase in supply in the future is relatively certain. Of course, there are still some variables in the planned production and actual production of the combined product. For example, the MEG device of Satellite Petrochemical has not been put into production as scheduled. However, once the inventory continues to accumulate, it will be more difficult for prices to rise again.
In the context of the general trend of oversupply in the industry, the profit fluctuation range is limited. For the PTA and MEG, which have already had a relatively serious overcapacity, cost has a greater impact on prices.
The significant difference from PTA and MEG is that staple fiber will not have a large number of new production capacity put into production before the fourth quarter of this year, that is, there is no pressure to increase supply, so the problem of staple fiber has always been demand. In spite of the rigid demand, from March to the end of May, the downstream basically did not experience a decent centralized replenishment.
Polyester staple fiber production and sales have been sluggish since April, most of the time production and sales are below 100%. Continuous large-scale replenishment also requires the improvement of downstream textile and apparel orders. The current market focus is on whether the global textile supply-side and demand-side epidemics are ebb and flow, whether it can bring re-export orders for the domestic textile industry.
OPEC+ confirms production increase, Brent breaks through US$70
Yesterday afternoon, international oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude oil futures rose more than 2% and stood above the $70 mark; WTI crude oil also broke through $68, the first time since October 2018.
Thanks to the continued economic recovery, the outlook for fuel demand in the United States, China and parts of Europe has improved. Major cities in the United States have successively loosened blockade measures, which has promoted a better outlook for US fuel demand. New York City will fully lift restrictions on commercial activities on July 1, and Chicago will relax restrictions on most industries.
Tradition Energy director Gary Cunningham said: “Many states in the United States are relaxing restrictions to facilitate summer travel, and oil demand will therefore rebound sharply.
In addition, many European countries have gradually relaxed their blockade. Since May, Germany, France, Italy, Hungary, Serbia, Romania and many other European countries have stepped up their efforts to unblock them. Among them, the Spanish Ministry of Health said on Monday that it may cancel the mandatory measures to wear masks in outdoor places in mid-to-late June.
OPEC+ held a meeting last night. OPEC representatives said that after increasing production in May and June, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Oversight Committee (JMMC) recommended to maintain the July crude oil production increase plan. According to the plan, OPEC+ will increase production by 350,000 barrels per day and 441,000 barrels per day in June and July, respectively.
In addition, Saudi Arabia will continue to lift its voluntary production reduction plan of 1 million barrels per day announced earlier this year.
International oil prices surged and fell on Tuesday. As of the close, the July NEMEX WTI crude oil futures contract closed at US$67.72/barrel, an increase of 2.11%; the August ICE Brent crude oil futures contract closed at US$70.25/barrel, an increase of 2.23%.
Let’s take a look at today’s analysis of the market trend of 12 kinds of plastic raw materials market.
One ：General Plastic Market
1.PP: Narrow finishing
The PP spot market adjusted within a narrow range, and the fluctuation range was around 50-100 yuan/ton.
Influencing factors
Futures continue to fluctuate, the spot market lacks guidance, and the fundamental contradiction between supply and demand is limited, market offers are not changed much, downstream terminals purchase on demand, traders follow the market on the spot, and real offers are mainly negotiated.
Outlook forecast
It is expected that the domestic polypropylene market will continue its finishing trend today. Taking East China as an example, the mainstream price of wire drawing is expected to be 8550-8750 yuan/ton.
2.PE: The rise and fall are not the same
The price of PE market fluctuates, the linear part of North China region rises and falls 50 yuan/ton, the high-pressure part rises and falls 50 yuan/ton, the low-pressure membrane material part rises and falls 50-100 yuan/ton, and the injection part falls 50 yuan/ton. The drawing part increased by 50 yuan/ton; the east China region linearly increased by 50 yuan/ton, the high-pressure part fell by 50-100 yuan/ton, the low-pressure hollow part fell by 50 yuan/ton, and the membrane material, drawing and injection molding parts fell by 50-100 yuan /Ton; the linear part of South China region rose and fell 20-50 yuan/ton, the high-pressure part fell 50-100 yuan/ton, the low-pressure drawing and membrane material part fell 50 yuan/ton, and the hollow and injection molding rose and fell 50 yuan/ton.
Influencing factors
Linear futures opened higher and operated at a high level. However, there was a limited boost to the market players’ mentality. Petrochemical continued its downward trend. The stockholders offered up and down, and the terminal received the goods insisted on rigid demand. The firm price focused on negotiation.
Outlook forecast
It is expected that the domestic PE market may be dominated by weak shocks today, and the mainstream price of LLDPE is expected to be 7850-8400 yuan/ton.
3.ABS: narrow oscillation
The ABS market fluctuated within a narrow range. So far, some domestic materials have been offered at RMB 17,750-18,600/ton.
Influencing factors
Taking advantage of the rising trend of crude oil and styrene futures, the selling mentality stabilized slightly yesterday, some low-price offers were withdrawn, and some prices in southern China rose slightly. The East China market fluctuates within a narrow range, the enquiry atmosphere is flat, and small and medium downstream factories insist on just replenishment.
Outlook forecast
It is expected that the ABS market will be weak and narrow in the near future.
4.PS: slight adjustment
PS market price adjusted slightly.
Influencing factors
The continuous rise in raw material styrene futures prices boosted the market trading atmosphere; the small increase in styrene spot prices has limited boost to PS prices. Holders continue to ship mainly, and downstream buyers just need to follow up with the market conditions.
Outlook forecast
Short-term styrene futures may continue to rebound to boost the market trading atmosphere, but the limited increase in styrene spot prices is difficult to significantly boost PS prices. Overlaps the GPPS supply gradually loosening status, GPPS prices may be adjusted within a narrow range, HIPS is easy to fall but difficult to rise. carry on.
5.PVC: Slightly upward
Domestic PVC market prices rose slightly.
Influencing factors
Black tie drove the overall rise in commodities. PVC futures rose significantly, spot transactions improved, and market prices in various regions rose gradually. The spot market is still tight, but expectations for June-July are weak. The weak macro atmosphere has improved. The overall trend of commodities is improving. Market participants are cautiously optimistic.
Outlook forecast
It is expected that today’s PVC prices will still fluctuate strongly.
6.EVA: Weak and weak
Domestic EVA prices are weak and downcast, and the market transaction atmosphere is weak.
Influencing factors
Yanshan, Organic, and Yangzi’s ex-factory prices were lowered, while the rest of the companies were stable. Traders are actively reducing prices and inventory, terminal demand is off-season, purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and overall market transactions are sluggish.
Outlook forecast
It is expected that the short-term EVA market may continue its weak finishing trend, and the VA18 content foam material may be 19,000-21200 yuan/ton.
Two: engineering plastics market
1.PA6: The center of gravity shifts down
The focus of the slicing market negotiation has shifted down within a narrow range, and downstream customers replenish goods on demand.
Influencing factors
The price range of pure benzene market fluctuated, and the cost of caprolactam was weakly supported. The wait-and-see sentiment in the market heats up, the downstream polymerization plant replenishes the order, and the caprolactam plant actively negotiates the shipment. The East China caprolactam liquid market intends to sell at a weak and stable price.
Outlook forecast
The short-term PA6 market transaction center is expected to fluctuate at a low level.
2.PA66: stable trend
The domestic PA66 market trend remained stable, and the price did not change significantly. The supply of the stockholders in the market is stable, the quotation is maintained at a high level, the actual order is negotiated slightly, and the downstream replenishment is on demand.
Influencing factors
East China’s adipic acid market was weak and sorted out. At the beginning of the month, the market mentality was vacant, and the downstream enthusiasm for entering the market was average.
Outlook forecast
It is expected that the short-term PA66 market will be flat.
3.PC: Offer dropped
The weak mentality of the domestic PC market remains, and market offers continue to fall.
Influencing factors
The market offer dropped, and the merchants had real-book deposits for negotiation. Terminals are currently slow in purchasing and continue to pay attention to the further adjustment of PC prices under the influence of the decline in BPA.
Outlook forecast
The domestic PC market is cautious, and merchants’ trading sentiment is still temporarily limited. Although the bisphenol A market is temporarily consolidating, the supply of liquidity is relatively lacking, and the market is cautious about further changes in buying mentality.
4.PMMA: Clean up operation
The PMMA particle market is organized and operated.
Influencing factors
Raw material prices rose within a narrow range, cost support was limited, some supply of PMMA particles was tightened, holders offered stable prices, trade market operations were flexible, terminal factories just needed inquiries, trading was thin, and trading volume was limited.
Outlook forecast
It is expected that the short-term domestic PMMA particle market will be mainly organized. The domestic particle in the East China market will be referenced at 16300-18000 yuan/ton, and the price of imported particles in the East China market will be 16300-19000 yuan/ton. The actual order will be negotiated, and further attention will be paid to the raw materials and transactions in the later period.
5.POM: narrow down
The domestic POM market fell within a narrow range, and the transaction was average.
Influencing factors
The domestic manufacturers’ installations are operating stably, but the manufacturer’s overhaul has just ended, and the supply remains tight, and most of the manufacturers are firm in offering stable prices. The downstream sector has entered the off-season, with rational purchases, low social inventories, and mostly just-needed purchases. There is no intention to hoard stocks. The short-term market tends to be weak, and it is becoming more difficult for the market to firm up volume.
Outlook forecast
It is expected that the domestic POM market will have limited room for decline in the near future.
6.PET: Offer increased
Polyester bottle flakes factory offers increased by 50-150, real order prices are 6350-6500, traders’ offers have risen slightly by 50, and the buying atmosphere is light.
Influencing factors
The spot price of polyester raw materials fluctuated upwards. PTA closed up 85 to 4745 yuan/ton, MEG closed up 120 to 5160 yuan/ton, and the polymerization cost was 5,785.58 yuan/ton. On the cost side, the intraday polyester bottle flakes factory offers increased. Driven by the rising atmosphere of the factory, the focus of intraday polyester bottle flakes market discussions shifted upward, but the bidding performance was weak.
Outlook forecast
Considering the obvious driving force of crude oil rise, it is estimated that polyester bottle flakes will enter a steady rising channel in the short term.
There are more than ten varieties of PP, ABS, PS, AS, PE, POE, PC, PA, POM, PMMA, etc., and more than a hundred advantageous resources of major petrochemical manufacturers such as LG Yongxing, Zhenjiang Chimei, Yangba, PetroChina, Sinopec, etc.
Post time: Jun-03-2021